Hypredict
Each level is a separate market on Anthropic's market cap at the close of its first trading day, if it lists by Jan 1, 00:00 UTC. It resolves to Yes if the market cap exceeds that level, and otherwise to No. This market covers Anthropic's first public offering of common equity for a regulated exchange listing (the "Offering"). The Offering does not qualify if Anthropic's common equity traded publicly before the Offering on a regulated exchange or on a venue open to retail investors without qualification, or if it is a direct listing, SPAC transaction, reverse merger, or offers units, debt, preferred shares, or depositary receipts not representing only common equity. Renames and a holding company formed for the Offering count as Anthropic; another parent, subsidiary, or acquirer does not. The Final Prospectus is the final prospectus or equivalent filed with the securities regulator for the Offering, with supplements filed by the evidence cutoff; the Listing Exchange is the regulated exchange it names for the listing or, if several, the first named that quotes a pricing currency of the Offering, else the first named. The First Trading Day is the first day a trade in the offered securities executes in the Listing Exchange's regular session, excluding conditional or when-issued dealings. The Closing Price is the Listing Exchange's official closing price for them that day; for depositary receipts, divided by the shares each represents. Shares Outstanding is all common or ordinary shares of every class outstanding immediately after the Offering at its final size excluding over-allotment shares, as the Final Prospectus states or its stated figures determine; for a class with several figures on that basis, the first in the prospectus summary applies. The Market Cap is the Closing Price times Shares Outstanding, in US dollars. A Closing Price in another currency converts at the International Monetary Fund's representative rate or, for a currency it omits, the cross rate from the European Central Bank's euro reference rates, or, for one both omit, its central bank's reference rate, for the First Trading Day or, if none, the latest earlier day; otherwise the Market Cap is unestablished. The market resolves to 0.5 if Anthropic does not identify a single company, the Offering does not qualify, no First Trading Day's regular session has closed by Jan 1, 00:00 UTC, or a required fact is unestablished by the evidence cutoff. Otherwise, it resolves to Yes if the Market Cap exceeds that level and to No if not. Only evidence public by seven days after the earlier of the First Trading Day's close and Jan 1, 00:00 UTC is used; resolution occurs only after that cutoff. A correction a source publishes by the cutoff prevails; conflicts these rules do not resolve leave a fact unestablished. This market is not sponsored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with any entity referenced. Names and trademarks are descriptive only.